Lots To Talk About On Kerry's Diplomatic Tour

Written By Unknown on Senin, 23 Juni 2014 | 00.27

Pity John Kerry. The marathon man of international diplomacy has embarked on yet another tour of global capitals in what looks like an increasingly vain attempt to stop nations at the heart of the Middle East and Europe from pulling themselves to pieces.

His first stop Cairo. Now ruled by Field Marshall Abdel Fatteh al Sisi.

Once a vital US ally in the Middle East, Egypt saw its democratic hopes shattered by a military coup which deposed an erratic Muslim Brotherhood government.

Now the new regime has jailed secular activists, sentenced hundreds to death for "terrorism" and is holding international journalists in jail on absurdist charges having shot hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood dead on the streets last year.

No wonder Mr Kerry said when he arrived: "We have a lot to talk about".

A stable Egypt is now essential to an unstable region. So Mr Kerry is likely to put aside principle in the name of realpolitik.

His next stop is Amman, Jordan's capital, but his eyes will be on Baghdad. Jordan's King Abdullah II will need reassuring that the US will stand by him, as he has by them, in the face of a burgeoning threat from Sunni militancy across his borders in Syria and Iraq.

In Iraq he will be trying to persuade Nouri al Maliki to reform his style of government. To bring Sunnis closer into the political process, rely less on unqualified loyalists in key positions in the armed forces and intelligence services, and draw the poison out of the Iraqi body politic before it spins off into separatist enclaves of Sunni, Shia and Kurd.

John Kerry In Egypt John Kerry arrives in Cairo to meet the new government

He is likely to be ignored. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said just as Mr Kerry landed in Cairo that the US pressure should be resisted.

Mr Kerry was snubbed on his last visit to Baghdad when he asked Mr Maliki to stop Iranian arms shipments to Assad's Syria from using his airspace.

With no movement from Mr Maliki, even though he faces bitter criticism from influential Shia party leaders, there is unlikely to be much American support, and the prospect of US air strikes to stop the advance of ISIS and its allies dwindles to almost zero.

Mr Kerry will leave the Middle East and head to Europe, where he will meet with Nato leaders to discuss Ukraine - another country fighting its own centrifugal forces.

He'll be pushing for further sanctions against Russia, which has moved more troops to the border with Ukraine and continues to foment violence in the country's east.

He may get more traction there.

But Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of moderating his policies - neither in the face of sanctions that have already bitten into the Russian economy nor after a unilateral ceasefire offer from Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president.

The dangers of widening war in both regions loom large with the attendant disruptions to trade, commodity prices and humanitarian disasters.

Mr Kerry may return to the US having solved little but will be shaking his head at the inability of leaders to avoid their own suffering.


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